Zogby on Predicting the Iowa Caucuses

Can the Iowa caucuses be polled accurately?

What’s fascinating is to see that Kerry, the eventual winner, gained 10 points in the polls in the last 9 days, taking it right out of Dean and Gephardt’s hides (with a little help from some undecided voters).

So maybe the problem with polling isn’t that polls are inaccurate (as I was arguing), but that people can have wide swings in the last moments and that the undecideds don’t necessarily go to the front-runner.

Or maybe polls are inaccurate, and Zogby just got lucky.

Related posts:

1. Tucker and Ron Paul, and Why Ron Paul is Low in the Polls
2. “Time for Change” Back Again
3. “Democratic Edge on Issues Extends to Terrorism, Morality”