Comments on: The Fermi Paradox http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/ programming, politics, & other religious issues Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:31:40 +0000 hourly 1 By: Two Applications Everyone Should Be Running | Enfranchised Mind http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/#comment-36972 Two Applications Everyone Should Be Running | Enfranchised Mind Sat, 31 Oct 2009 15:14:22 +0000 http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/?p=1379#comment-36972 [...] Please see Brian’s The Fermi Paradox post before committing your clock cycles to the SETI@Home project in lieu of more immediately and [...] [...] Please see Brian’s The Fermi Paradox post before committing your clock cycles to the SETI@Home project in lieu of more immediately and [...]

]]> By: stefan http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/#comment-36840 stefan Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:24:16 +0000 http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/?p=1379#comment-36840 Building the space elevator. Are we there yet? http://www.hplusmagazine.com/editors-blog/notes-space-elevator-conference-august-13-16-2009 Building the space elevator. Are we there yet?

http://www.hplusmagazine.com/editors-blog/notes-space-elevator-conference-august-13-16-2009

]]> By: More ideas on the Fermi Paradox | Space Time Stories http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/#comment-36140 More ideas on the Fermi Paradox | Space Time Stories Mon, 22 Jun 2009 03:47:55 +0000 http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/?p=1379#comment-36140 [...] http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/ [...] [...] http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/ [...]

]]> By: Brian http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/#comment-36016 Brian Sat, 06 Jun 2009 14:20:16 +0000 http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/?p=1379#comment-36016 Actually, it's worse than that. I'm taking a snapshot of one year and extrapolating from that. But your mention of the "last fifty years" is interesting. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? In addition to changes to the family structure, the post-WWII era was also an era of massive increases in median wealth (as opposed to mean wealth). People were rich enough to not only move away from their extended families, but also to buy suburban homes and cars and refrigerators and tvs. Prior to WWII/Great Depression, during the Gilded Age, the industrial economies resembled the outliers I mentioned- a small number of very rich people (the Rockefellers and Morgans and Carnegies) and large numbers of below-mean poor people. Not as bad off as some of the oil exporting countries, but enough to depress the trends. It'd be interesting to actually see the broken-out data, average birthrates by income strata, covering a long stretch of time- covering pre-depression at least, pre-industrial if you could, across multiple different cultures (not just US/Europe, but also Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America). The data I'm working with is just too crude- it's suggestive, but that's all. This sounds like someone's PhD thesis. Or a book. Actually, it’s worse than that. I’m taking a snapshot of one year and extrapolating from that. But your mention of the “last fifty years” is interesting.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? In addition to changes to the family structure, the post-WWII era was also an era of massive increases in median wealth (as opposed to mean wealth). People were rich enough to not only move away from their extended families, but also to buy suburban homes and cars and refrigerators and tvs. Prior to WWII/Great Depression, during the Gilded Age, the industrial economies resembled the outliers I mentioned- a small number of very rich people (the Rockefellers and Morgans and Carnegies) and large numbers of below-mean poor people. Not as bad off as some of the oil exporting countries, but enough to depress the trends.

It’d be interesting to actually see the broken-out data, average birthrates by income strata, covering a long stretch of time- covering pre-depression at least, pre-industrial if you could, across multiple different cultures (not just US/Europe, but also Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America). The data I’m working with is just too crude- it’s suggestive, but that’s all. This sounds like someone’s PhD thesis. Or a book.

]]> By: Tomasz Wegrzanowski http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-fermi-paradox/#comment-36012 Tomasz Wegrzanowski Sat, 06 Jun 2009 02:38:56 +0000 http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/?p=1379#comment-36012 You're extrapolating population growth from the last 50 years. And not only last 50 years are highly atypical, massive demographic shift is happening all during that time. Western civilization used to be about extended multi-generational families with men working and women looking after children, then it turned into nuclear families with both parents working and early first birth, now it turns into low-commitment serial monogamy with very late birth, for all we know we might get into polyamory networks with children being taken care of mostly by welfare networks (subsidized nannies etc.) to allow single parents to look after children and have proper jobs. Or something entirely different. Not only nature of relationships changed, nature of sex and reproduction did so too - at first the only option was sex with reproduction, now the most common kind is sex without reproduction (notice how something like 99% of sex today is with contraception, idea completely unknown just a century ago). What's growing in popularity is also reproduction without sex - gamete donation, IVF, and so on - leading to complete separation of sex and reproduction. Likewise age structure of society changed drastically. This all basically means that any prophecies about long term future of human demographics are pretty much pointless - we might stabilize somewhere near twice the current levels, like most predictions say, or as likely we might keep growing a few orders of magnitude at a slow pace. A good argument for massive growth is that the kind of families that will arise victorious from the current mess are the ones that are best at producing loads of children, and convincing them to keep their parents' family type. It wouldn't surprise me that much if religious fundamentalists won this race, as secular people are way below replacement rate right now. You’re extrapolating population growth from the last 50 years. And not only last 50 years are highly atypical, massive demographic shift is happening all during that time. Western civilization used to be about extended multi-generational families with men working and women looking after children, then it turned into nuclear families with both parents working and early first birth, now it turns into low-commitment serial monogamy with very late birth, for all we know we might get into polyamory networks with children being taken care of mostly by welfare networks (subsidized nannies etc.) to allow single parents to look after children and have proper jobs. Or something entirely different.

Not only nature of relationships changed, nature of sex and reproduction did so too – at first the only option was sex with reproduction, now the most common kind is sex without reproduction (notice how something like 99% of sex today is with contraception, idea completely unknown just a century ago). What’s growing in popularity is also reproduction without sex – gamete donation, IVF, and so on – leading to complete separation of sex and reproduction.

Likewise age structure of society changed drastically.

This all basically means that any prophecies about long term future of human demographics are pretty much pointless – we might stabilize somewhere near twice the current levels, like most predictions say, or as likely we might keep growing a few orders of magnitude at a slow pace.

A good argument for massive growth is that the kind of families that will arise victorious from the current mess are the ones that are best at producing loads of children, and convincing them to keep their parents’ family type. It wouldn’t surprise me that much if religious fundamentalists won this race, as secular people are way below replacement rate right now.

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